Gold’s glitter is back. December-dated gold futures (GCZ25), the most actively traded contract, rose above the $3,500 mark on July 23 before paring back some gains. Spot gold also recently jumped, and is already up 29% year-to-date (YTD). While weak U.S. payrolls, rising Federal Reserve rate-cut bets, and a fresh round of tariffs are adding fuel, it’s the deeper structural forces that are doing the heavy lifting.

Central banks are loading up, with the majority planning to boost gold reserves within the next year. Layer in rising geopolitical tensions, surging debt, and gold’s tariff-exempt status, and bullion stands out not just as a commodity but as a strategic asset.

Money managers are following suit. Bullish bets on gold surged by the high teens to 170,868 contracts for the week ended July 22, hitting the highest level since April — well before the U.S. and European Union even started warming up trade talks. And with the dollar (DXY00) weakening, inflation still sticky, and rate cuts on the table, gold’s run has legs, flexing its safe-haven muscle hard.

If you’re looking to ride this rally wisely, you may want to keep your eye on Caledonia Mining (CMCL). This small-cap miner is turning heads with strong margins and a stake in Zimbabwe’s Blanket Mine, which delivered record-breaking second-quarter production numbers just weeks ago. With the full Q2 earnings report set to release next week and full-year production guidance raised, CMCL stock is gaining momentum right alongside gold.

Caledonia Mining stock is currently Barchart’s top-rated gold stock to buy.

About Caledonia Mining Stock

Founded in 1992, Jersey-based Caledonia Mining is building its legacy in the heart of Zimbabwe. With a 64% stake in the high-grade Blanket Mine and full ownership of Maligreen, Bilboes, and Motapa gold projects, the firm blends production strength with exploration potential. Caledonia Mining’s footprint spans from active mining to untapped reserves, positioning it as a rising force in Africa’s precious metals landscape with deep roots and a focused future.

The gold mining stock has surged 147% from its YTD low of $8.81, with shares seeing a 110% gain over the past 52 weeks. While CMCL did dip briefly late last month, the stock has been cushioned by the solid Q2 output from Blanket Mine and a bullish earnings outlook.

Plus, technically, CMCL stock’s 14-day RSI is at 46.69, neither overbought nor oversold, signaling possible consolidation. 

One reason investors stick with Caledonia Mining is its steady payout. The company has been dishing out dividends for years, paying a $0.14 quarterly dividend. Its annualized dividend of $0.56 per share translates to a solid 2% yield, more than the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) 1.14% yield.

A Closer Look at Caledonia Mining’s Q1 Earnings Report

Gold may be the headline, but Caledonia Mining is quietly becoming the story. The company kicked off 2025 with an impressive Q1 earnings report on May 12. Revenue surged 46% year-over-year (YOY) to $56.2 million, fueled by a 9% boost in gold output and a 42% jump in average realized prices. Gross profit almost doubled annually to $26.9 million. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS rose to $0.585 from $0.097 in Q1 2024. 

With 19,106 ounces of gold pulled from the ground, Q1 marked a high-water mark, thanks to operational refinements like plant-mine decoupling and sharper safety protocols.

That wasn’t all. Caledonia Mining also firmed up its balance sheet, ending the quarter with $18.6 million in net cash after closing its solar sale. Cost-cutting remains a top priority, with efforts underway to optimize the central shaft and streamline labor via new tracking systems. 

In Q1, Blanket Mine produced 18,671 ounces of gold, up 9.5% annually. This was thanks to increased milled tonnage, which made up for a slight dip in grades. Meanwhile, the Bilboes oxide mine added another 435 ounces to the total.

Then came Q2, and another feather in the cap. The company announced that its Blanket Mine delivered 21,070 ounces of gold, the highest-ever for a second quarter. That nudged production for the first half of 2025 to 39,741 ounces, up 5.1% YOY. Riding that momentum, Caledonia Mining hiked its full-year guidance to between 75,500 ounces and 79,500 ounces.

CEO Mark Learmonth didn’t hold back regarding the results, noting, “Production in the first half of 2025 was excellent and has exceeded our expectations.”

And there’s more to come. Caledonia Mining is set to release its full Q2 and H1 results on Aug. 11, and the company is already telegraphing profitability. With gold prices on a tear and Blanket Mine firing on all cylinders, the momentum is hard to ignore.

What Do Analysts Expect for Caledonia Mining Stock?

Caledonia Mining is not exactly a household name on Wall Street, but it is making some serious noise. After the company reported record gold production at Blanket Mine for Q2, Maxim Group analyst Tate Sullivan raised his CMCL price target from $21 to $28, keeping a “Buy” rating. That kind of move says confidence is building.

Only one analyst covers CMCL stock, but it still holds a “Strong Buy" rating. The $28 price target represents 29% potential upside from current levels for this under-the-radar gold mining stock.